13/02/12

Disoccupazione Giovanile: un leading indicator?


Ho definito varie volte (in modo non molto ortodosso) la disoccupazione giovanile
come un leading indicator che ci da un'idea di come si configureranno i tassi di disoccupazione nei prossimi anni all'interno delle economie ex-avanzate,
grazie alla globalizzazione selvaggia (distruzione dei tessuti produttivi e dei posti di lavoro qui da noi)
ed all'equalizzatore globale (tendenza all'equalizzazione dei compensi tra 3.000 euro in Cina compreso involtino primavera e 30mila euro qui da noi compreso Iphone...)

Infatti adesso ci sono ancora un sacco di persone di 40-50 anni che lavorano con vecchi contratti a tempo indeterminato e che abbassanno la media del tasso di disoccupazione
ma quando questi "brontosauri" si estingueranno
allora il mercato del lavoro assomiglierà sempre di più a quello che vediamo anticipato nella componente giovanile
sia come tipi di contratti, che come retribuzioni,
che come tasso di disoccupazione (vedi dati Eurostat under-25 sotto riportati)
Lavoro, il rapporto Istat: «Solo il 19% a tempo indeterminato».

Il calcolo naturalmente è spannometrico
perchè molti giovani ormai......arrivano sul mercato del lavoro anche dopo i 25 anni
e perchè i giovani sono per definizione un elemento debole ed acerbo del mercato lavorativo: hanno meno esperienza/skills e dunque entrano sul mercato in posizioni deboli per poi in teoria avere forti possibilità di rivalutazione e di crescita della loro posizione lavorativa.

Il problema è che questo processo
di "rivalutazione", d'incremento salariale e di conquista di maggiori sicurezze e garanzie (compatibili con età lavorative più avanzate che ti concedono minori "margini di manovra")
si sta man mano indebolendo se non addirittura volatilizzando.
Dunque ha sempre più senso guardare al mercato lavorativo dei giovani ed al tasso di disoccupazione giovanile come ad una specie di sfera di cristallo che ci anticipa cosa accadrà nella fase III della globalizzazione selvaggia.

Ecco una deprimente CLASSIFICA
della disoccupazione giovanile in Europa (dati eurostat, under 25)
Su 27 Paesi Europei,
L'ITALIA SI COLLOCA A FONDO CLASSIFICA
AL 23° POSTO...
Peggio di noi solo Lituania, Slovacchia, Grecia e Spagna...

Che possiamo dire a questo 31% di giovani disoccupati (bamboccioni) italiani?
Strong Buy Italia??
Che il debito pubblico italiano sarebbe perfettamente sostenibile anche al 5,5% di rendimento (secondo Goldman Sachs)...mentre in realtà camminiamo sempre sul filo del rasoio?
Che possono comprarsi tranquillamente BTP come investimento "sicuro" che faccia da surrogato degli ammortizzatori sociali?
Che possono emigrare tutti in Trentino/Alto-Adige....e da lì l'Italia gli sembrerà addirittura meglio della Germania?
Che i magheggi del LTRO della BCE e la tecnocrazia di Monti si posso confondere allegramente con i FONDAMENTALI di lungo periodo del Sistema Italia?
Che gli investimenti a rischio possono essere confusi tranquillamente con gli investimenti sicuri, basta avere un po' di fede nazionalista che ti renda arditamente insensibile all'azzardo...?

Io non so cosa possiamo dire a questo 31% di "bamboccioni"
se non quello che già Vi dissi con il cuore e con la mente in questo post: IL MIGLIORE CONSIGLIO CHE VI ABBIA MAI DATO IN QUESTO BLOG LO DEDICO AI VOSTRI FIGLI: LASCIATE L'ITA(G)LIA!
Ma altri sapranno consigliarvi sicuramente meglio di me...
ma soprattuto sapranno farlo in modo molto più imparziale...;-)
We drew on the latest data from Eurostat to give a sense of Europe's massive unemployment problem.
16 countries on this list have a youth unemployment rate higher than the EU 27-country average.

1- Germany
Youth unemployment:
7.8%
Overall unemployment:

5.5%
Youth unemployment is down from 9.1 percent in December 2010. Germany and France are working on new measures to cut youth unemployment, and revive economic growth in Europe.
2- Austria
Youth unemployment:8.2%
Overall unemployment:

4.1%
Austria's youth unemployment is much lower than the EU average of 22.1 percent. Unemployment in the under-25 age group is twice the national average, and unemployment is higher among females than males.

3- Netherlands
Youth unemployment:
8.6%
Overall unemployment:

4.9%
Netherlands' youth unemployment rate of 8.6 percent is far below the EU average, but is marginally higher than it was in December 2010. Meanwhile the male and female unemployment rates are both at 4.9 percent.

4- Malta
Youth unemployment:
14.2%
Overall unemployment:

6.5%
While Malta's overall unemployment rate is marginally lower in December 2011, compared to a year ago, its youth unemployment rate is up from 13.6 percent in December 2010. The female unemployment rate of 7.1 percent is higher than the 6.2 percent rate among males.
5- Luxembourg
Youth unemployment:
15.2%
Overall unemployment:

5.2%
Luxembourg's overall unemployment rate climbed in December, from the previous month, and was up on a year-over-year basis as well. Luxembourg has a male unemployment rate of 4 percent, which is lower than the 6.6 percent rate for females.
6- Denmark
Youth unemployment:
14.7%
Overall unemployment:

7.8%
Denmark's youth unemployment rate is down from 15.0 percent in November 2011, but up from 13.6 percent in December 2010.

7- Slovenia
Youth unemployment:
15.2%
Overall unemployment:

8.2%
Unemployment in Slovenia has ticked higher, with the jobless rate rising from 8 percent in December 2010. Slovenia has witnessed "in-work poverty" with a rise in temporary job contracts which largely target the youth.

8- Czech Republic
Youth unemployment:
19.5%
Overall unemployment:

6.8%
The Czech Republic's youth unemployment rate is up from 17.1 percent in December 2010, and is close to the EU average of 22.1 percent. Unemployment among males increased from 5.9 percent in November, to 6.1 percent in December, but is lower than year ago figures.

9- Finland
Youth unemployment:
19.9%
Overall unemployment:

7.6%
Finland which has been noted for its successful schools has a stubbornly high youth unemployment rate, which is down from 20.7 percent in December 2010, but close to the EU average of 22.1 percent. Unemployment among females is at 6.6 percent, and is lower than the 8.4 percent rate among males.
Finland's youth unemployment rate is being driven up in towns that are largely dependent on one industry for jobs.
  10- Belgium
Youth unemployment:
20.7%
Overall unemployment:

7.2%
Belgium has posted double-digit youth unemployment since 2002. close to EU average of 22.1 percent. The jobless rate among the under-25 age group, is nearly three times the overall unemployment rate.


11- Estonia
Youth unemployment:
21.8%
Overall unemployment:
11.3%
Estonia's youth unemployment rate has fallen from 25.7 percent in November 2010, and is now below the EU average. The high unemployment rate among the under-25 demographic has been attributed to larger number of young people looking for jobs than before.

12- United Kingdom
Youth unemployment:
22.3%
Overall unemployment:

8.4%
UK youth unemployment has ticked higher, and youth that aren't employed, in training, or studying, cost UK citizens €16 billion on average, or 0.9 percent of GDP.

13- Sweden
Youth unemployment:
22.9%
Overall unemployment:

7.5%Sweden's youth unemployment rate is higher than the EU average. Like Slovenia, Sweden has also seen an increase in "in-work poverty", with a rise in temporary job contracts which largely target the youth. Sweden reported a male unemployment rate of 7.6 percent and a female unemployment rate of 7.3 percent for December 2011.

14- Romania
Youth unemployment:
23.4%
Overall unemployment:

7.0%
Romania' overall unemployment eased from 7.3 percent in November 2011. Youth that aren't employed, in training, or studying, cost the country €1.2 billion on average every year.

15- France
Youth unemployment:
23.8%
Overall unemployment:

9.8%
France's youth unemployment rate has increased from 23% in November 2010. The country has a high overall unemployment rate of 9.8 percent in line with the EU average. France and Germany have been in talks to introduce new measures aimed at cutting youth unemployment.
  16- Cyprus
Youth unemployment:

25.8%
Overall unemployment:

9.3%
Youth unemployment in Cyprus has jumped from 15.3 percent in December 2010. The jobless rate among the under-25 demographic is higher than the average EU youth unemployment rate.

17- Hungary
Youth unemployment:

26.7%
Overall unemployment:

10.9%
Hungary's youth unemployment is up from the 26 percent rate in November 2011, and the 25.7 percent rate reported in December 2010. The Hungarian government passed a plan that would no longer give benefits to people who are capable of working, and would instead employ them in community service jobs.


18- Bulgaria
Youth unemployment:
26.8%
Overall unemployment:
11.2%
Bulgaria's youth unemployment is up from 26 percent in December 2010. The December 2011 male unemployment rate of 12.3 percent is higher than the female unemployment rate of 10.1 percent.

19- Poland
Youth unemployment:

27.7%
Overall unemployment:

9.9%
Poland's unemployment rate has surged from 24.3 percent in December 2010, but has dropped significantly in the last decade. Low investment and a surge in people returning to the country after living and working abroad, is driving up the jobless rate.
20- Ireland
Youth unemployment:
29.0%
Overall unemployment:

14.5%
Hit by austerity, Ireland's youth unemployment rate is much higher than the EU average of 22.1 percent, and youth unemployment has created an emigration crisis in the country. The 17.3 percent unemployment rate among males is much higher than the 11.1 percent rate among females.
  21- Latvia
Youth unemployment:
30.0%
Overall unemployment:

14.8%
Latvia's youth unemployment rate has eased from 30.8 percent in December 2010. Youth that aren't employed, in training, or studying, shave 1.4 percent off the country's GDP each year.

22- Portugal
Youth unemployment:

30.8%
Overall unemployment:

13.6%
Portugal's youth unemployment rate ticked up from 26.9 percent in November 2010. The overall unemployment rate of 13.6 percent is being driven up austerity measures and lack of investment and economic growth. A fifth of the country's graduates have emigrated.
 
23- Italy
Youth unemployment:31.0%
Overall unemployment:

8.9%
Italy's public debt and austerity measures are stunting job growth in the public sector. Youth unemployment has increased from 28.1 percent in December 2010, moreover, 20 percent of Italians between the ages of 15 - 29 are no longer seeking higher education. Italian youth that aren't employed, in training, or studying, cost the country €26.6 billion every year.
  24- Lithuania
Youth unemployment:

31.0%
Overall unemployment:

15.3%
Lithuania's youth unemployment rate has eased from 33.9 percent in December 2010. The 17.5 percent unemployment rate among males, is higher than the 13.1 percent rate among females.

25- Slovakia
Youth unemployment:
35.6%
Overall unemployment:

13.4%
Slovakia's youth unemployment rate has increased from 33.2 percent in December 2010. The country needs to drive job growth, especially in the service sector, and cut the population's dependence on social subsistence if it wants to rein in youth unemployment.

26- Greece
Youth unemployment:
48.0%
Overall unemployment:

20.9%
Greece has taken on punishing austerity measures to avoid default, and cuts in public spending have seen unemployment surge. The jobless rate among Greek youth has jumped from 37.2 percent in December 2010.
  27- Spain
Youth unemployment:

48.7%
Overall unemployment:

22.9%
Spain has the highest youth unemployment in Europe and the jobless rate among the under-25 age group has surged from 43.5 percent in December 2010. The country could lose a generation to emigration which is sure to have a devastating long-term implications for the economy.

Fonte articolo

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