25/02/11

Lo ribadisco: occhio al Bahrain & dintorni...

Stamattina il Petrolio (US Light Crude) si aggira intorno ai 100 dollari.
Le Borse naturalmente già provano a rimbalzare....
(tra parentesi: indovinate qual'è il Paese che ha più da perderci a causa della Libia "in fiamme" ed allo stesso tempo indovinate qual'è la Borsa che sta rimbalzando di più....forza...non è difficile...).

Come ripeto da giorni e come vi spiegavo in La miccia? Guardate un po' cosa sta succedendo in Bahrain
la Libia è il DRAMMA sotto ai riflettori
ma la "chiave di volta" dell'eventuale shock petrolifero è altrove.
Mi riferisco allo scacchiere
- miccia del piccolo Bahrein con maggioranza popolazione sciita (70%) in rivolta
- polveriera "petrolifera" dell'Arabia Saudita: provincia est a maggioranza sciita con 1/3 del petrolio Saudita ed 1/5 di quello mondiale
- guastatori dell'Iran, pronti ad approfittarne al meglio

Del resto basta vedere la lunghezza delle colonnine....per capire DOVE potrebbe innescarsi lo scenario nightmare con petrolio a 200$ (gli analisti lo danno al 25% di possibilità).



Stratfor On Why Developments In Bahrain Are More Important Than Libya's

While the world is focusing on the fighting in Libya, there is a much more profound development taking place in the Persian Gulf, particularly in the country of Bahrain,
where the government is negotiating with the opposition.
And the outcome of those negotiations will be far more geopolitically relevant and significant than the fighting that is taking place in Libya.

The reason why Bahrain is very important is because in any negotiation you have to have some give-and-take, and it’s likely that the Bahraini monarchy will have to give some concession to the opposition.

And once that happens, it will lead to an empowerment of the opposition, 70 percent of which is Shia — 70 percent of the population of the country is Shia — and that has very large-scale implications for the region, particularly for Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
........

.....From the point of view of Saudi Arabia, an empowerment of the Shia in Bahrain will likely energize their own Shia population, which is concentrated in the eastern province, which is an oil-rich area not too far from the border with Bahrain.

.......And confirming that things in Saudi.....are getting very hot is an account from a source on the ground who observed a 1,000 person protest in Qatif. The reason: demands for the release of all Shia prisoners.
More importantly this was not a social media organized event.
If it had been, it would be far bigger.
..

Saudi Arabia's Domestic And Foreign Challenges
24 Febbraio 2011


....Bahrain is of particular concern to Riyadh.
The current Shiite unrest in the island kingdom has continued since Feb. 13.
Even though the Bahraini regime seems to be gradually reducing the unrest by offering talks with the opposition and making other concessions, such as the release of Shiite political prisoners,
Saudi Arabia is extremely concerned about emboldened Shiite political activity on its eastern flank — and thus increased Iranian influence in both Bahrain and the Persian Gulf.
The Saudis fear that Iran — which already has asserted itself in both Lebanon and Iraq, where governments that are likely to give considerable sway to Iran are in the process of being formed — could use its leverage with Bahrain’s Shiite majority to change the balance of power in the Persian Gulf region.
This would be a direct threat to the kingdom due to Saudi Arabia’s Shiite minority, which comprises 20 percent of the Saudi population — and is concentrated in the oil-rich northeastern region of the country near Bahrain.
In light of this fact, it is unsurprising that Bahraini Bahraini King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa went to Saudi Arabia on Feb. 23 to meet with Saudi King Abdullah.
Fonte articolo

Nessun commento:

Posta un commento